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ARCHIVED - Tinsa report second consecutive fall in Mediterranean coastal property values in January
A year-on-year increase of just 1.6 per cent across Spain confirms the slowdown in the market
The leading Spanish property valuation firm Tinsa published its latest batch of monthly data regarding the market value of housing across the country on Thursday morning, reporting that in January 2020 the recovery in market prices of recent years continued to stall.
A year-on–year increase of just 1.6 per cent was the 13th consecutive rise of under 5 per cent and one of the lowest for a few years, while in Mediterranean coastal areas a downward movement of 0.3 per cent since January 2019 is reported. At the same time, though the nationwide index actually rose during the month by 18 points to 1,529.
In consequence, the firm reports that the figure is now just 16.5 per cent higher than when the market bottomed out in February 2015, but 33.1 per cent lower than at the height of the boom in late 2007.
The staggered nature of the recovery can be seen in the breakdown of the figures, which shows that in Spain’s regional capitals and other large cities market values have risen by almost 28 per cent in the last three and a half years, while elsewhere there are increases of 19 per cent in the Balearic and Canary Islands and the Mediterranean and 12 per cent in “metropolitan areas”, but only 6 per cent in the catch-all category of “other municipalities”.
The January figures show the sharpest year-on-year increase in regional capitals and other large cities at 48.8 per cent, but year-on-year falls in metropolitan areas (-2 per cent), the Canaries and the Balearics (-2.5 per cent) and on the Mediterranean coast (-0.3 per cent), while values rose by 0.9 per cent in “other municipalities”.
The latest bulletin also contains the monthly “market snapshot”, in which Tinsa highlight reasons to expect upward or downward movements in the value of homes in Spain, summarizing the following indicators among others:
- Sales figures: the latest monthly data (for November) show an 8.2 per cent year-on-year decrease and an accumulated fall during the first 11 months of the year of 3.1 per cent.
- Building licences: the latest monthly data (also for November) show a 25.5 per cent year-on-year decrease and a 5.4 per cent rise over the first 11 months of 2019.
- Mortgages granted: despite the drop in sales figures, the latest monthly data (for November) show a 1.1 per cent year-on-year increase and a 1 per cent rise during the first 11 months of the year.
- Unemployment: the latest monthly data (for January) show a 0.97 per cent decrease during the last 12 months, the least positive figure for years after the seasonal increase after Christmas and the New Year.
- Euribor: the interest rate on which most mortgage repayments in Spain are calculated is currently at -0.253% (the average for the month of January), continuing the very gradual rise from the record low of August.
In general, these factors continue to point to rather less certainty over the nature of future developments than has been the case for the last couple of years. Especially eye-catching are the poor sales figures in recent months, but none of the most recent data as summarized above can be said to be conducive to optimism regarding a rise in market value in the immediate future.
The Spanish property market, though, is far from uniform, and national averages tend to distort the picture: there are regions where the outlook is rosier than in others – in Murcia, for example, sales figures and values continue to rise according to the latest data - but in overall terms it the demand for housing across the country seems to have reached a natural peak, and in consequence there is less upward pressure on market value.
To view a wide range of properties for sale across Spain consult the Spanish property page.
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