ARCHIVED - Murcia Today weekly bulletin 27th March 2020

Tighter lockdown a possibility after 5 days in which 36,000 coronavirus cases were confirmed in Spain and another 3,000 people died

When Murcia Today last published a news bulletin just five days ago it was at the end of a momentous week, in which the number of coronavirus cases confirmed in Spain had risen to over 28,000 and the lockdown ordered by the national government the weekend before had immediately been justified by the rapid spread of Covid-19.

But even at that point it is perhaps the case that the full seriousness of the crisis in which Spain was immersed had not become clear to all of us, even those living in the country. Now, however, there is no denying that the word “emergency” scarcely does justice to the pandemic in this country, where the death toll has risen from 1,753 five days ago to 4,858, far more than have been reported in China, and the number of cases has spiralled to 64,059 following in increase of 125 per cent since Sunday 22nd March.

In the long term plenty of people are attempting to forecast the consequences of Covid-19 for the national and global economies, but it is hard to look beyond the short to medium term at present. One of the most pressing concerns is that the Spanish health service, while universally praised at the level of primary care, has been found to be under-equipped for a major episode of this kind, and many of the most disturbing stories to reach the headlines over the last few days have been related to shortages of staff, intensive care facilities, protective equipment, hospital beds and even adequate funeral services to cope with the increased demand.

First things first, though, and for those fortunate enough not to be suffering from the coronavirus or to be anxiously monitoring the condition of loved ones who have tested positive, the job at hand is to remain firm through the remainder of the lockdown period – however long that might take. Although the experts were looking hopefully at the figures yesterday to see signs of a peak in the number of new infections, there is very little to be optimistic about at the moment other than that the number of those recovering from the virus is increasing.

What that means is that the amount of stress being placed on over-stretched healthcare and medical facilities may begin to stabilize over the next few days, but the lockdown is likely to continue for at least a few more weeks although at present it is extended only until 12th April. Depending on how the situation develops in the next few days, it could even be tightened.

Tonight it was announced that France has extended its own restrictions until the 15th April and Belgium will amplify its own lockdown until at least the 19th April.

In the meantime, the arrival of the weekend makes this a good moment to stop and reflect on the dizzying stream of news over the last five days which has seen the scale of the pandemic in Spain evolve from very serious to barely comprehensible, highlighting some of the most important, the most shocking and – where possible – a few of the light-hearted moments along the way.

Monday 23rd March

4,517 new cases, total 33,089

462 fatalities, total 2,182

3,355 recoveries in total

Region of Murcia: 345 cases, 3 fatalities, 1 recovery

The week began with the president of the regional government in Murcia joining others in calling for an even stricter lockdown throughout the country – an idea which gained credibility during the following days - as the figures spiralled ever higher, also requesting the use of a military hospital outside Cartagena in order to increase the response capacity of the health service, while supermarkets in the Region shortened their opening hours, announced Sunday closures and put in place more and more measures to protect both staff and customers.

But in Spain as a whole the drastic nature of the situation began to become abundantly clear in many ways, as the massive Ifema exhibition centre in Madrid was converted into an emergency overflow hospital: the first patients began to arrive almost immediately. Almost simultaneously plans were announced, also in Madrid, to convert the Palacio de Hielo ice rink and leisure centre into an emergency morgue as funeral providers were unable to cope with the increased demand for their services in and around the national capital.

Hotspots of horror in old people’s homes

At the same time, news began to emerge that the Military Emergencies Unit, which had been called in to enforce the lockdown and to help disinfect key facilities, had found disturbing scenes in some homes for the elderly.

With the considerable benefit of hindsight, it could be said that the coronavirus has highlighted deep faults in the Spanish care system. The majority of care facilities in the country are privately run and must make a profit while at the same time charging people prices they can afford in order to comply with their licencing agreement, which may be a basic pension of just over 9,000 euros per year.

As a result, the homes are often understaffed and unprepared, and some were quickly overwhelmed throughout Spain, with death rates of up to 20 per cent.

Many of the coronavirus “hotspots” in Spain have been institutions of this kind, but it seems that some of them have not only failed to provide adequate care for their residents but have also failed to report cases of Covid-19 to the relevant authorities, and it was confirmed that the UME found elderly people abandoned and, in some cases, dead in their beds.

This sparked horror nationwide, and the attention of the media rapidly spotlighted cases from all over the country, highlighting the problem faced by the health services in coping with the scale of the epidemic and the danger facing the elderly in these care homes.

Almost at the same time, an 87-year-old man died from the coronavirus in the Quirón hospital in Murcia having been transferred there from the Caser residence for the elderly in Santo Ángel, despite the centre having reported no cases of the virus just the day before. Alarm bells began to ring immediately, and by Friday it had been established that more than 60 other people at the centre, including both residents and staff, have tested positive, with three more fatalities and 21 people described as being in critical condition including the hospital director.

Between them, the Caser residence and 7 others in the Region are now known to have been behind at least 125 cases of Covid-19, and the count is still rising.


Spain closes its borders
As airlines prepared for an almost total shutdown Spain closed all of its borders – including ports and airports – to non-Spaniards attempting to enter the country except in special extenuating circumstances, and as it became clear that the original 2-week lockdown period was going to be extended more and more businesses across the country registered temporary “ERTE” employment regulation schemes. Over 1,000 businesses in Murcia had done so over the weekend, and by the end of the week this meant that an estimated 150,000 people in the Region (the final figure is likely to be nearer 200,000 according to the unions) – a tenth of the population and a quarter of the working population – were temporarily laid off and relying on Social Security to receive at least a subsistence proportion of their usual wages and salaries.

Tuesday 24^th March

6,588 new cases, total 39,673

514 fatalities, total 2,694

3,794 recoveries in total

Region of Murcia: 385 cases, 3 fatalities, 1 recovery

In the Region of Murcia arguably the most worrying news on Tuesday was that apart from the confirmed cases as many as 7,500 more people were infected, a figure which on Friday afternoon rose to 12,000, the "suspected " cases. This huge discrepancy is due to the lack of testing facilities in the Region and while those identified are in quarantine and are being monitored by telephone, it means that the health service is at a considerable disadvantage in dealing with the pandemic and in attempting to monitor its true spread.

It also meant that many members of the public had been lulled into a false sense of security about the true extent of the number of cases in this region as there is a massive difference between 385 cases and 7,885. In addition to this total a further 7,500 were quarantined after coming into close contact with those known to be contagious, and many municipal councils were angered that their residents were not being given a clearer and more accurate picture of where the cases were focused to enable them to make intelligent decisions about their personal safety.

This has in turn contributed to the reluctance of some residents to respect the lockdown and certainly social media in the expat community was filled with complaints about residents failing to observe the lockdown; reports of groups of people walking and cycling around the resorts as though there was no crisis and continuing to drive around on non-essential missions.

By this point, the police were starting to clamp down and become less tolerant of those who claimed "not to know" and the arrival of reinforcements from the military boosted their capacity to issue fines and restrict movement.

At the same time, though, some of the sting was taken out of this news by the fact that during the night much of the Costa Cálida had been hit by a fierce storm, hours and hours of torrential downpour bringing well over 100 millimetres of rain to Cartagena and causing flooding in the Campo de Cartagena and on the coast of the Mar Menor. Yet again the town of Los Alcázares was hit, and by Tuesday lunchtime it was clear that parts of the town centre would have to be cleared of mud and floodwater for the fourth time in seven months.

However, at least there were no major incidents reported during what has been described as a "historic" example of changing weather patterns (temperatures this weekend are likely to be ten degrees lower that the historical average for the time of year with more rain predicted for Monday and Tuesday and even snow set to fall this weekend in the north-west), despite emergency workers having expressed their reluctance to undertake any rescues from flooded homes without adequate protection and guarantees that those inside were not infected with Covid-19.

The State meteorological agency Aemet later admitted shortcomings in its failure to provide adequate warning that the storm was on its way, and when the rain began to ease off it was found that one of the most photographed locations in the Costa Cálida, the “gredas” or eroded rock formations in Bolnuevo, near Puerto de Mazarrón, had been damaged by the wind and rain, with a large boulder having fallen from its precarious perch as the forces of erosion were suddenly accelerated during the night.

But for UK nationals in Spain the reality began to dawn at last that, if they hadn’t realized it already, their ability to return home if necessary has now been severely impaired. As things have transpired this has not been caused, as some feared, by Brexit, but by the virtual closure of airports in Spain and the extreme difficulty in travelling in Europe at present.

CEO Michael O’Leary issued a statement accepting that it is highly unlikely that Ryanair flights will be operated in April and May, and by Wednesday evening flight tracker maps of Spain showed the skies of the south-east of the country to be completely empty of aircraft.

In the UK, International Air Transport Association IATA has warned of an "apocalypse" in the aviation sector, stating that worldwide revenue from ticket sales would fall by 215 billion pounds if the current travel bans remain in place for 3 months, and many expats are quite rightly questioning how they will be able to fly to Spain during the next few months.

Meanwhile, an interesting consumer survey found that since the first wave of panic buying a fortnight ago Spanish shoppers have re-appraised their priorities, whereas their British counterparts have desperately stockpiled toilet rolls and pasta, the Spanish have a different set of priorities, the result being a 78% increase in beer sales: desperate times call for desperate measures, so pour yourselves another desperate measure and hunker down to watch the full set of Game of Thrones replays!

Wednesday 25^th March

7,937 new cases, total 47,610

740 fatalities, total 3,434

5,367 recoveries in total

Region of Murcia: 477 cases, 6 fatalities, 4 recoveries

While the Region of Murcia recovered from the floods of the day before the number of coronavirus infections confirmed at the Region’s homes for the elderly continued to rise and emergency legislation empowered regional governments all over Spain to take over the management of such centres. Regional governments are now empowered to not only intercede in the management of the centres, but also convert them into makeshift hospitals as some hospitals are simply unwilling/unable to take in all of the cases from some of the carehomes; it is more practical to simply transfer staff into the care home and nurse in situ.

Unfortunately, it emerged that the delivery of 4 million facemasks which had been announced by the regional government in Murcia had been delayed, exacerbating a lack of protection against infection among healthcare and medical workers and other vital groups such as the police and the Guardia Civil. By the end of the week it would be reported that 137 health service employees in Murcia alone had tested positive (representing 23 per cent of all confirmed cases) and that with another 400 quarantined, staff shortages were having to be supplemented by extra personnel.

Across the whole of the country, meanwhile, the number of health professionals diagnosed had risen by 75 per cent in only three days to 9,444 on Friday, or almost 15 per cent of all cases, underlining still further the extreme strain under which the much-praised healthcare structure of Spain is being placed.

More than 450 members of the Armed Forces and Guardia Civíl have also tested positive.

On day 12 of the lockdown the police issued more warnings that the criminal element of society was starting to take advantage of the lockdown to break into unoccupied properties in coastal areas, but one member of the criminal fraternity was detained when he failed to rob a bank in Monteagudo, a few kilometres from the centre of Murcia: everything went to plan, apparently, until he contrived to lock himself in the bank with members of staff, and even then it took all of the negotiation skills of the police to convince him that his heist attempt was over.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus lockdown was clearly becoming too claustrophobic for some people and police and Guardia officers continued to identify those failing to comply and to impose fines. Four of those detained were actually on the run from hospitals in Madrid and Benidorm, and had to be tracked down as a matter of extreme urgency before being returned to their hospital beds.

Even more impressively, a man in Lanzarote was fined by the police after taking his pet chicken for a walk along the seafront: apparently he “fell fowl” of the law which allows the walking of dogs!

Thursday 26^th March

8,578 new cases, total 56,188

664 fatalities, total 4,098

7,015 recoveries in total

Region of Murcia: 596 cases, 8 fatalities, 9 recoveries

Analysts began to see a faint glimmer of hope in the latest statistics as the upward curve showed signs of flattening a little: more in some regions than in others, and only slightly, but enough to arouse hopes that the lockdown may be starting to have the desired effect.

However, other analyses provided fewer grounds for optimism. One widely quoted study in the Region of Murcia concluded that the peak in the Costa Cálida is still at least two weeks away, and the shortage of facemasks among the Policía Nacional in the Region was highlighted by the news that four officers had tested positive (among an estimated 700 nationwide). In response a crowdfunding campaign was launched to fund the purchase of 3-D printers in order for them to create their own supply of masks, and one Murcia Today reader with his own printer responded by generously offering to help in any way he can!

Despite the generally gloomy outlook, though, many people still seemed determined to find loopholes in the lockdown laws in any way possible. It was reported that 3,000 people had already been fined in Murcia for breaching the restrictions, and plenty seemed keen to misinterpret a minor amendment to the state of emergency which allows more than one person to travel in a car in certain circumstances: the rules now allow, for example, a child to accompany an adult on essential journeys if no other carer is available at home, but this does NOT mean that couples can simply jump in the car and head for the shops as if nothing were amiss!

Neither does it mean that dancing in the streets is permitted, even if it is in an attempt to keep the neighbours’ spirits up, or that hunting Pokemons is a valid excuse, and in various towns throughout Spain Town Halls have taken matters into their own hands in order to stop people taking advantage of the few reasons for which they are allowed outside by shopping for food three or four times a day, or by exercising their dogs to the point where the poor animals are probably exhausted: who would have thought a few weeks ago that it would be necessary to establish dog-walking timetables or minimum spending levels of 30 euros in supermarkets to control the population?

Friday 27^th March

7,871 new cases, total 64,059

760 fatalities, total 4,858

9,357 recoveries in total

Region of Murcia: 714 cases, 15 fatalities, 12 recoveries

Again, some clutched at straws as the number of NEW cases reported dropped marginally but at the same time the rate of deaths increased again (the latest victims including Princess María Teresa de Borbón y Parma, a relative of King Felipe VI) in the latest national statistical bulletin. It is some consolation that the number of recoveries reported seems to be gathering momentum, but in Murcia that is not yet apparent after the death toll almost doubled in 24 hours.

As the week ends, the most daunting news is perhaps that the Spanish government is considering tightening up the lockdown still further if there is no marked improvement in the picture over the next few days and there has already been talk of an "easing of restrictions" after the 12th April rather than a removal. The "tightening up" would involve the closure or partial closure of major roads, always with the exception of transport which is necessary for healthcare, the forces of law and order and other emergency services as well as keeping roads open for waste collection, the armed forces, food production and distribution, fuel supply, the postal service and cleaning and hygiene products.

It is important to reiterate that the implementation of these measures is not reported to be imminent, but be warned: the matter is on the table ready for discussion if the coronavirus pandemic worsens in Spain in the next few days.

At the same time, the shortage of testing kits and apparent anomalies in the official figures lead many experts to believe that the real level of infection in Spain could be as much as ten times higher than that reported: in other words, there could be half a million active cases in the country at the moment, but with the first batch of rapid testing kits having been returned to the Chinese manufacturer after they were found to be ineffective it is impossible as yet to confirm or deny this suspicion.

Initially the government talked about returning 9,000 kits but by the end of the day 650,000 kits were being sent back.

Salvador Illa, the Minister for health, said that the faulty kits have been returned to the manufacturing company Bioeasy in China, and in consequence the government’s plans to begin using them this week have had to be put on ice. This means that thousands - or possibly tens or hundreds of thousands - of cases will inevitably go undetected, making it impossible to isolate the patients and prevent the further spread of Covid-19.

To say that medical and hospital managements are disappointed would be to understate the case. For now they will be obliged to continue using the PCR testing method which is time-consuming and represents a drain on laboratory and personnel resources, whereas the new tests promised to complete the testing process within just 15 minutes. But it has been found that the Bioeasy kits have a sensitivity level of only 30 per cent as opposed to the required efficiency of 80 per cent, making them unreliable as they would provide many negative results for infected patients.

In consequence the current testing capacity in Spain remains at its limit of around 15,000 to 20,000 per day.

The importance of being able to test patients believed to be positive is underlined by our own situation here in Murcia. We have less than 700 confirmed cases officially, but earlier this week the regional health authority confirmed that over 7,500 suspected cases were being monitored telephonically as there were insufficient kits available to test them and officially classify them as a "case". All of these are considered mild cases, so the patients are all at home. There are also over 7,500 individuals who have been in close contact with contagious cases and are in isolated lockdown as they may have contracted the virus. Without being able to test these individuals, Murcia continues to report less than 700 cases, the fear being that the public will be lulled into a false sense of security and the virus spread further, or that those who are contagious may continue to spread the virus through contact with their family when they should be in isolation.

With the month of March also drawing to a close, it is with some trepidation that the latest official unemployment figures in Spain are awaited. The jobless total was already showing signs of stabilizing at around 3.25 million during the months of January and February, but analyses of the data available at this point suggest that the jobless figure could rise by millions when the March figures are published.

Trades unions estimate that around a million people have officially been made redundant during March following the lockdown. On top of this, at least another million – possibly a lot more – are subject to “ERTE” temporary employment regulation schemes which have been filed by their employers in the last two weeks, meaning that the March total could easily top 5 million for the first time since late 2015.

In Murcia alone it is estimated that between 150,000 and 200,000 people are affected by 8,080 ERTEs – that’s over a quarter of the working population – and with one of the proposed measures if the lockdown is tightened concerning the construction sector the potential for damage to the national economy is so far-reaching that it is hard to place figures on it.

Unions are calling for construction to be included in the list of non-necessary businesses which have been forced to close after the first two workers active on a site tested positive last night. This would bring a significant quantity of business activity to a halt, a good thing in one way as workers are protected, but a bad thing in another as yet more small companies will be forced to stop working and earning money.

What is clear, though, is that in just a fortnight the coronavirus pandemic may have wiped out most or all of the decrease in the jobless total in Spain which has been achieved in the last 6 years, and that when the country finally returns to something resembling normal conditions the economic panorama throughout the whole country will have altered dramatically.

A quick glance at some of the headlines in the financial press on Friday confirms this impression: the tourism sector has been completely decimated (even asylum seekers are not coming to Spain, the number of applications having dropped from 3,685 in the second week of March to just 25 last week!), airports are running at 3 per cent of the levels of a year ago, the regional health service is scrambling to increase the capacity of intensive care units in Murcia three-fold, an ERTE at the hospital of Molina de Segura is threatened, manufacturing companies in Yecla are concentrating all of their efforts on disinfectant gel and protective visors instead of furniture, a private healthcare concern is offering its 700 doctors to help out in the public sector, the government plans to buy 13 million facemasks for transport workers and others, stock market indexes are falling rapidly and a video conference summit of EU leaders has failed to reach any agreement on how to halt the economic crisis.

They have agreed to consider new proposals in a fortnight, but at the current rate who knows what the situation will be by then? In Murcia cultural events are now being cancelled as far ahead as the summer, and in the regional capital even the local holiday on the Tuesday after Easter has been postponed due to the cancellation of the spring fiestas.

The effect of this is that the Virgen de la Fuensanta, the patron of the city, is now trapped in the cathedral and unable to make her own journey home as the Spring Fiestas will not take place after an Easter which will not take place either. Yesterday the San Javier Jazz Festival and a raft of other events planned for san Javier were all cancelled including what would have been a new air festival which hadn't even been officially presented, and today Caravaca de la Cruz announced the cancellation of its Fiestas of the Santísima y Vera Cruz, the core element of which is the Running of the Wine Horses.

As Spain’s Minister for Development stated this week, while it is important to combat the pandemic it is also important to maintain an economic base to support the healthcare system, hence the government’s reluctance (which appears to be weakening) to impose further restrictions on the population with a tighter lockdown. On the other hand, though, this very valid viewpoint could very soon be of secondary importance if the situation in Spain continues to worsen: the next few days will be crucial in a great many ways.

Finally........a huge thank you to all of those who have supported the decision to change this bulletin to a paid model, not a decision taken lightly after 11 years of free service.

Your contribution will enable us to continue writing about the Region of Murcia in English, and we'll be honest with all of you because you have chosen to support this initiative; without this injection of liquidity you have given us, this product faced a very uncertain future due to the collapse in advertising revenue which followed the lockdown announcement, and although all attention is focused on the development of the Covid-19 virus at the moment, there will be a "post-corona" and the availability of information will be vital for non-Spanish speakers as inevitably a period of convulsive change lies ahead immediately after this crisis.

We have no way of knowing at the moment what will happen, talk of how we will all be affected by Brexit at the end of the year has gone worryingly quiet as the world fights this virus, but we know that although the sun will start to shine soon, and the tourists will come back, that many expat businesses will need help, access to information and a platform which provides a strong base to help the expat community, the charities and those who are trying to make a living here, all of which your payment has just provided. Thank you.